Monday, March 14, 2011

And if the Chinese auto market to collapse?

How many times have we heard repeated that "China is an opportunity"? Given that everything is to be established for "who" is an opportunity, what would happen if we discovered that the right moment ... it is finished? That is: what are the consequences if the Chinese market collapse? For many manufacturers China was the largest market and attractive, a promised land to which divert their investments.

Some may not fire a warning bell, in the light of the news of the sharp decline in early 2011. Causes, for once let us not at stake complicated socio-economic theories but simple statements of fact. On the one hand, the exponential increase in air pollution has forced government restrictions, it also played heavily in the end of government incentives.

Eloquent A chart on the situation was published by Businessinsider, this is the same that we represent the beginning of the post. The source is the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, which confirms a drop in sales of -33%. The explanation for Zhu Yiping, an assistant secretary general of CAAM, according to which was influenced by the long weekends for the Chinese New Year, may have some truth but the data remain of concern.

To see the glass half full is AGI, which compares the data against those recorded in 2009: the month of February showed a 2.6% over the same month a year ago. It does not fail to recall that in January it had signed a 'surge of 16.2%. Indeed the Chinese market in recent years had seen staggering numbers.

We recall the amazing 46% of sales in 2009 compared to 2008, with a total of 13.6 million vehicles, a result that for the first time China saw excel on the United States, struggling at that time in the most difficult phase the financial crisis. The major manufacturers in the world have directed their investments in this country, by binding to domestic producers and even creating dedicated models to get closer to the tastes and needs of Asian customers.

It 's the case of Audi, as reported by Reuters, reached in 2010 the finish line of the first million cars delivered to China. The prospect is now for the Germans to reach a total of 2 million at the end of 2014: in fact, China has become an important market as well as to house and manufacturing capabilities are now at full capacity, so as to lengthen the list considerably waiting.

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