Wednesday, March 9, 2011

They increase oil prices and fuel

There are difficult days for the Italian and European motorists. The rising cost of petrol due to the tensions in North Africa and the increased cost of oil, came to the psychological threshold of $ 120 per barrel (Brent), who has thrown into turmoil makes daily use of the machine, and is putting many problems throughout the transport sector.

The oil, in fact, is still the main source of energy supply and, since the system depends largely on the sources, a problem immediately lit the fuse in the extraction of fear, which then generates speculation. The fact is, however, that most oil comes from Saudi Arabia, which so far has not been affected by the socio-political upheavals of the Middle East (fortunatamente..).

And while America, more self-sufficient, is able to deploy its special reserves for moderation by the possible shortage of oil, and the subsoil of Russia is, of course, filled with energy deposits of all kinds, Europe Instead, he is not putting very well, because, unlike all the other major blocs, not on its territory significant sources of oil, direct or reserve.

Italy, finally, in addition to the problems of purely geographical (almost no presence of oil in the ground, bank of difficult configuration, etc..), To crown it is unfortunate that the nation has more than economic interests (and in particular oil) with the Libya, which is why the first to notice the scarcity of supply from the country in flames we are the ones.

Everything so bad then, they can not do anything? Not exactly. In reality, in fact, the increase in pump price is not directly dependent on the ongoing war in Libya. Despite the long introduction, there is also no shortage of the shadow, because OPEC, the first thing, increased oil production by adjusting the "dial" of abstraction and reporting the value immediately before the war.

What happens then in the race to higher prices? The increase is affecting not only Italy but across Europe (and some other states). To get to the Italian situation, we must consider at least two reasons: one European (international) and an Italian (local). The reasons that push up the international race of black gold are essentially three: 1.

Increase in the cost of a barrel 2. Depreciation of the euro against the dollar cost 3. Fear that the problems in Libya will be extended to other countries while the reasons that push up the local pump price are three more: 1. About 65% is composed of the excise 2. There is no real competition between three major brands.

There are few distributors white (no logo) and too many kiosks (small and very small local distributors). These components of different order should therefore be addressed at different levels: economic and financial problems of international nature should be addressed at European level, and must be aimed at avoiding financial speculation.

The issues instead of administrative and economic should be discussed locally and must be aimed at decreasing the Italian anomaly. In addition there is another factor to keep in mind when considering the Italian trend in prices, and is the notorious problem of "double speed" between the price of oil and the price at the pump.

When the former increases, just the second increases, while when the first falls the second .... expect much to adjust (when it does ..). But this is not really a motivation more than anything else is an effect of lack of competition. And in fact, treat the symptom rather than the cause does not seem a solution, but the government, also under pressure from consumer groups, have also created a commission to assess trends in fuel prices.

A few days ago, Gianluca Pezzi Autoblog published a chart showing the trend of prices in two years under review: interesting to study the appearance of double speed. Detail. In late February began the race to the top and currently (as of 7) the threshold of 1.57 euro per liter of unleaded gasoline reached in vending It represents a new historical record, after the peak of 1.56 reached July 15 € 2008.

This is the record price on the national territory, which then rises beyond 1.6 € in some areas of the country, such as Campania, due to additional regions. For diesel is raised from 1, 44 € / liter of Tamoil service stations 1, 46 plants found in Q8 (the no-logo 1.39). LPG, finally, is positioned around the 0.79 euro per liter registered in stores Eni, Q8 and Tamoil (0.77 € / l the no-logo).

These figures make you think, but where it is best not to rely too much. Fluctuations in the price of oil is still huge, and it is difficult to predict whether a line is in another. Some historical data. I end with a small graphic self-produced. For several years, for business first, and then settled out of habit, I always at the same petrol pump, a fully automatic plant Q8 Easy in the west of Rome.

The other pumps of the same brand have the same price (with minor differences in the order of the cent), and in general I have observed that even the big brands with automated self-service have similar prices. Because I always keep the receipt I have reported data on a Excel chart. The historical data will not have a statistical value, but overall I think can still be useful for comparison and can give an interesting result, because even.

Here's the chart: As you can see, the maximum peak of 2008 is identical to the level we have today, then we expect that the situation could either present a descent, as it was in that year, or continue to rise. We'll see. Advice. It should also be said that many people insist on "wanting to pay more," because they choose the "served", or worse still stand near the old house.

In both cases, the petrol is always 5 to 10 cents more per gallon in these modes of distribution. So be careful to always get a modern automated plant with Do-it-yourself, where you also save a lot, and try to plan their supplies, filling the tank at least two-thirds and lengthening the time between a supply to another.

It may seem little, but there is evidence that you can get to spend more than € 3 not fully paying attention to these details.

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